ExecutivePulse
Official Federal Data

Warren County, Tennessee

McMinnville, TN · Population 42,166
10 Sources Updated September 10, 2026
$55,487 up from the baseline named below
Median Income (nominal) vs 2019
$80,734 national
3.9% up from the baseline named below
Unemployment vs 2024
4.3% national
$2B up from the baseline named below
GDP (nominal) real change vs 2023
14.1% down from the baseline named below
Bachelor's+ vs 2019
35.7% national

Demographics & Population

Census Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 · 5-Year Estimates

Household Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates
Median Household (nominal)
$55,487 up from 2019 vs 2019
Per Capita
$29,524 up from 2019 vs 2019
Mean Household
$74,703 up from 2019 vs 2019
Median Household (cost-of-living adjusted)
$60,378 state RPP 91.9
Poverty Rate
15.7% down from 2019 vs 2019
Median Income Comparison
Warren County$55,487
Tennessee$69,595
National$80,734
Warren County is $14,108 (20.3%) below the Tennessee median.
Cost-of-living adjustment uses the BEA all-items regional price parity for Tennessee, 91.9 against a national average of 100 (2024). BEA publishes regional price parity at state and metropolitan level only; there is no county figure, so the state index stands in for Warren County and the adjusted median is an approximation. Per capita and mean household income above are nominal and carry no adjustment.

Population Profile

Source: Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 · Table B01001, B02001, B03003
65+: 17.9% (7,552 residents) 55-64: 13.2% (5,562 residents) 35-54: 25.1% (10,565 residents) 18-34: 20.6% (8,669 residents) Under 18: 23.3% (9,818 residents) 40 Median Age
CohortsShare of total population
Under 18 · 23.3%
18-34 · 20.6%
35-54 · 25.1%
55-64 · 13.2%
65+ · 17.9%
Race & Ethnicity
White85.5%
Two or More Races7.5%
Some Other Race2.7%
Black or African American2.7%
American Indian and Alaska Native0.8%
Asian0.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander0.2%
Hispanic or Latino(any race)10%
Hispanic or Latino is an ethnic category and overlaps with the race categories above.

Educational Attainment

Source: Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 · Table B15003 · Population 25+
86.3%
High School+
National: 89.6%
down from national 3.3 pts vs national
14.1%
Bachelor's+
National: 35.7%
down from national 21.6 pts vs national
4.9%
Graduate+
National: 14.1%
down from national 9.2 pts vs national

Employment Overview

Source: U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates
42,166
Population
19,421
Labor Force
Employed
18,276
Unemployment Rate BLS LAUS 2025 annual
3.9% up from 2024 +0.1 pts vs 2024
Mean Commute
26.9 min
Work From Home vs 15.1% national
6.4%
Labor Force and Employed are ACS 5-Year survey estimates; the Unemployment Rate above comes from BLS LAUS, a separate monthly survey with its own methodology. The two won't reconcile by subtracting one from the other.
Key Takeaways
  • Income gap: Households earn meaningfully less than the national median, which directly affects retail demand, housing absorption, and tax base.
  • Below the state median: Median household income runs $14,108 (20.3%) under the Tennessee median, so statewide income averages overstate local household buying power.
  • Cost of living stretches income further: Local prices run 8.1% below the national average, so the nominal median of $55,487 is worth $60,378 at national average prices. BEA publishes price parity at state level, not county level.
  • Elevated poverty: At 15.7%, the rate is in economically distressed territory and supports federal funding narratives (CDFI, NMTC, EDA).
  • Talent gap: Bachelor's-or-higher attainment trails the national average by 21.6 pts, relevant for advanced-services attraction strategy.

Economy & Industry

Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW · Bureau of Economic Analysis

$2B up from 2023 +4.7% vs 2023
Gross Domestic Product · 2024
+4.7% real (inflation-adjusted) · +6.5% nominal · 2023 to 2024
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · level and nominal change from CAGDP2 (current dollars); real change from CAGDP9 (chained 2017 dollars), both all-industry total. The two series agree in 2017, the chain reference year, and diverge by the amount of price change since.
91.9
Cost of Living · state · Below Avg

Top Private-Sector Industries by Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages 2025 Annual · Private sector only, with government shown below
Top private-sector industries by employment in Warren County, Tennessee, with employment, share of top sectors, and average wage. Government employment is excluded and reported separately below the table.
IndustryEmploymentShare of Top 10Avg Wage
1Manufacturing
2,932 31.1%
$68,173
2Retail Trade
1,537 16.3%
$33,232
3Health Care and Social Assistance
1,154 12.2%
$49,309
4Accommodation and Food Services
1,034 11.0%
$18,750
5Administrative and Support and Waste Management
648 6.9%
$46,279
6Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
584 6.2%
$42,662
7Construction
533 5.7%
$63,498
8Wholesale Trade
406 4.3%
$70,051
9Finance and Insurance
361 3.8%
$72,418
10Other Services (except Public Administration)
244 2.6%
$44,327
Government employment · context only
2,086

Public-sector jobs are not in the table above and are not part of any share or location quotient on this page. Both are measured on the private economy only, 10,743 private jobs in 2025: every location quotient divides by that total, and the Share of Top 10 column divides by the 10 sectors listed above. Private employment is the standard basis for measuring industry concentration because government employment mostly serves the resident population rather than an outside market. Nothing on this card is expected to add up with the government figure.

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Key Takeaways
  • Largest private-sector industry: Manufacturing employs 2,932 workers (31.1% of tracked sectors), at an average wage of $68,173. Every industry figure on this page is private sector; government employs a further 2,086 and is counted separately.
  • Economic scale: Regional GDP of $2B (2024).
  • Wage stratification: Finance and Insurance averages $72,418 while Accommodation and Food Services averages $18,750, a 3.9x spread in the same local economy, with implications for workforce development and talent strategy.
Source: BLS QCEW + BEA Regional GDP.
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Industry Concentration

Location Quotient measures regional specialization vs. national average. LQ > 1.0 = concentrated.

Location Quotient Analysis

Chart source: BLS QCEW · broad NAICS supersector · private sector · Location Quotient vs. national private-sector employment share. The same supersector axes appear on every profile, so the shape can be compared across counties.
Concentrated Industries
List source: BLS QCEW · 3-digit NAICS sub-sector · private sector · Location Quotient vs. national private-sector employment share.
Same source and same private-sector basis as the Top Industries table above. These sit at a finer level than the chart's supersector axes, so the two sets of values are not directly comparable. The sub-sector view surfaces specialization the supersector view masks, such as Crop Production here.
Crop Production
12.77x
544
Wood Product Manufacturing
3.27x
106
Machinery Manufacturing
2.55x
224
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
2.43x
279
Building Material and Garden Supply Retailers
2.33x
258
General Merchandise Retailers
2.04x
531
Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers
1.73x
146
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
1.62x
54

Cluster Depth

Source: BLS QCEW · Sub-sectors with LQ ≥ 1.5 indicate genuine cluster concentration
Concentrated Sub-Sectors
8 sub-sectors at LQ ≥ 1.5
Largest grouping among them is Retail Trade Cluster at 43.7% of the employment across all of them, which signals supply-chain fit for site selectors
2,142
Employment in the sub-sectors listed
12.77x
Peak sub-sector LQ
Sub-Sector Detail
Crop Production
12.77x 544
Wood Product Manufacturing
3.27x 106
Machinery Manufacturing
2.55x 224
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
2.43x 279
Building Material and Garden Supply Retailers
2.33x 258
General Merchandise Retailers
2.04x 531
Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers
1.73x 146
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
1.62x 54

Attraction Opportunities

LQ < 0.5 with ≥ 50 employed, screened against local siting constraints. Source: BLS QCEW
0.37x
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
78 employed
0.38x
Warehousing and Storage
59 employed
0.39x
Educational Services
103 employed
Screened on industrial power cost, rail-truck intermodal access, land base. Industrial electricity in Tennessee costs 6.74¢/kWh against 8.62¢/kWh nationally (2025). Tennessee has 4 rail-truck intermodal terminals, the nearest 62 miles from the county. Land area 433 sq mi, larger than 27% of US counties. Sources: EIA, BTS NTAD, Census Gazetteer.
Key Takeaways
  • Top specialization: Crop Production concentrates at 12.77x the national norm, top-decile concentration, the kind of signature sector that defines a region's economic identity to site selectors.
  • Cluster depth: 8 sub-sectors register LQ ≥ 1.5, and no single source of demand accounts for more than 43.7% of the employment across them, the largest being resident household spending. Demand reaches this base from more than one market rather than from a single one.
  • Attraction whitespace: 3 sub-sectors register LQ < 0.5 with at least 50 employed, candidates for diversification or recruitment depending on labor-market fit.
Source: BLS QCEW sub-sector Location Quotients.
Warren County's Top Sectors by Workforce Share
Each rectangle's area is proportional to that sector's share of total private-sector employment across all NAICS supersectors. Hover for exact employment.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW 2025 Annual · Private sector, NAICS supersectors

Housing & Affordability

Census ACS · HUD Fair Market Rents FY2026

Housing Overview

Source: Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates · Tables B25001, B25077, B25064, B25004
$192,900 up from the baseline named below
Median Home Value vs 2019
$827 up from the baseline named below
Rent/Mo vs 2019
72.4% up from the baseline named below
Owner-Occ vs 2019
12.6% up from the baseline named below
Vacancy vs 2019
2% available
for rent or sale
3.5x
Home Value to Income Ratio
vs. ~4.1x national average

HUD Fair Market Rents

HUD publishes these by FMR area, which may cover more than one county · Source: HUD · Fair Market Rents FY2026 · Affordability threshold and renter cost burden from Census ACS B25119, B25070
Studio
$730/mo
1 Bedroom
$735/mo
2 Bedroom
$964/mo
3 Bedroom
$1,156/mo
4 Bedroom
$1,276/mo
30% of monthly median renter household income (~$942/mo, from a renter median of $37,673) · rents above this line are typically considered cost-burdened.
Measured: 37.1% of renter households already pay 30% or more of income on rent, and 14.4% pay 50% or more.
Key Takeaways
  • In line with national: Home value to income ratio of 3.5x sits near the ~4.1x national average; affordability is neither a clear advantage nor a recruitment friction.
  • High home ownership: 72.4% owner-occupied; rental supply may be tight for incoming workers.
  • Elevated vacancy: 12.6% of housing units are vacant, above the Tennessee rate of 10.2%, and up from 12.5% in 2019.
  • Vacancy composition: the largest vacancy category is other vacant at 68.8% of vacant units, with seasonal and recreational use at 9.8%.
  • Genuinely available supply: units listed for rent or for sale are 15.8% of the vacant stock, or 2% of all housing units against the 12.6% headline vacancy rate. Absorbable supply for an incoming employer is thin, and the gap between the two is the redevelopment and conversion opportunity.
  • Affordable rent tiers: 2 of 5 HUD Fair Market Rent bedroom sizes sit below what a household on the median renter income of $37,673 can pay without cost burden (~$942/mo), and 37.1% of renter households are measured as cost-burdened.
Source: Census ACS housing tables + HUD Fair Market Rents.

Workforce Pipeline

Labor force readiness, commuting, and workforce composition

Labor Market Overview

Source: Census ACS 2020-2024 · Tables B01001, B23001, B23025, B08303, B08301
24,796 up from the baseline named below
Working Age (18-64) vs 2019
Mean Commute
26.9 min
Work From Home vs 15.1% national
6.4%
Prime-Age Employed (25-54)
74.2%
of prime-age population
Prime-age rate numerator is civilian employed (B23001); the denominator is total population aged 25-54 (B01001), which also includes armed forces.
Labor force participation rate: 57.8%, the labor force as a share of the population aged 16 and over (ACS B23025) 58% Participation
of population age 16 and over (33,623)
up from 2019 vs 2019

Education & Talent Pipeline

Source: Census ACS 2020-2024 · Table B15003 · College Scorecard
Bachelor's+
14.1% down from 2019 vs 2019
HS Diploma+
86.3% up from 2019 vs 2019
Institutions in Warren County
1 institution in Warren County reporting credentials to College Scorecard
Credentials awarded in Warren County
174/yr
Tennessee College of Applied Technology-McMinnville 174/yr

Aging Workforce

Source: Census Bureau ACS · Derived from age & employment tables
22.4%
55-64 of working-age population (18-64)
Same cohort is 13.2% of total population, the basis used in the Demographics cohort chart.
Elevated retirement risk, above the 20% threshold. Succession planning recommended.

Workforce by Occupation

Source: Census ACS 2020-2024 · Table C24010 · Civilian employed population 16+
Management / Professional
26.1%
Service
15.9%
Sales & Office
21.5%
Construction / Maint.
12.1%
Production / Transport
24.3%
Bars are drawn on a 0% to 40% axis, so bar length is proportional to actual share. Labels give each group's share of 18,276 employed workers.
Key Takeaways
  • Succession risk is real: 22.4% of working-age residents are 55-64. Plan for retirements over the next decade and pair attraction strategy with talent retention.
  • Low participation: 57.8% labor force participation against a labor force that grew 6.9% between 2019 and 2024, so workforce development programs may unlock additional supply.
  • Talent pipeline: 1 institution in Warren County awards 174 credentials a year. Employers drawing from a wider labor shed should read this alongside institutions outside the county, which this page does not aggregate.
Source: ACS workforce data and College Scorecard.

AI Insights

Sample output. Pulse AI analysis draws on 10 federal data sources.

Sample AI Insight

Warren County shows strong potential for crop production attraction, with a 12.77x concentration and 544 jobs in this sub-sector. It ranks in the top decile nationally. Near-term succession risk is elevated, with 22.4% of the working-age population within 10 years of retirement age.

The concentrated base spans crop production, wood product manufacturing, and machinery manufacturing, and no single source of demand accounts for more than 43.7% of the employment across them, the largest being resident household spending. Supply-chain recruitment has more than one demand base to work from.

Industry Shift Analysis

Manufacturing Automation Risk
High
Healthcare Growth Forecast
+4.2% CAGR
Remote Work Migration
67/100

Prospect Match Scores

Advanced Manufacturing
92/100
Life Sciences
84/100
Data Centers
71/100
Illustrative example

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Data Sources

Updated from official federal government data.

Census ACS 5-Year2024
BLS QCEW2025 annual
BLS LAUS2025 annual
BEA Regional GDP2024
BEA Regional Price Parity2024
Census CBP2023
HUD Fair Market RentsFY2026
FCC Broadband Map2024
USAspending.govFY2026
College ScorecardAY 2022-23

American Community Survey figures on this page are 2020-2024 five-year averages rather than single-year counts. A five-year estimate pools 60 months of survey responses, so each value describes the period as a whole.

Frequently Asked Questions

Key economic and demographic figures for Warren County, Tennessee, from federal data sources.

What is the population of Warren County, Tennessee?

42,166 (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates).

What is the median household income in Warren County, Tennessee?

$55,487 in nominal dollars (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates). Adjusted for local prices using the BEA all-items regional price parity for Tennessee (91.9 against a national average of 100), that is $60,378 at national average prices. BEA publishes regional price parity at state level; there is no county-level figure.

What is the unemployment rate in Warren County, Tennessee?

3.9% (2025 annual average, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS).

What is the GDP of Warren County, Tennessee?

$2B (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CAGDP2).